Demand prediction baseline
Estimate next-period demand and compare it with a simple historical rule.
- Sample inputs
- A synthetic weekly sales series with seasonal variation and documented generation assumptions.
- Your tasks
- Create a chronological split, build a naive forecast, train a small regression model and compare errors.
- What to deliver
- A notebook with baseline and model predictions plus an error chart.
- Quality checks
- Use only information available at prediction time; report MAE and errors during unusual periods.
- Interview discussion
- Explain why a random split could misrepresent future performance.